WhenWin scans geopolitics prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. International conflicts, treaties, and diplomatic events — when the market price diverges from the evidence, we flag it.
Geopolitical markets are the hardest to calibrate but trade at the widest spreads. WhenWin uses historical resolution rates for similar conflict and diplomatic event types, cross-referenced with news context, to estimate true probabilities for open contracts.
International conflict escalation and ceasefire markets. Diplomatic agreements and sanctions. Leadership transitions. Any geopolitical event trading on Polymarket or Kalshi.
Every pick is tracked publicly. See the full history on the performance page.