Sports betting is you vs the sportsbook with a built-in house edge (the vig). Prediction markets are peer-to-peer — you're trading against other people, not a book with a margin baked in.
The sportsbook vig is typically 4-10%. Prediction market fees are much lower. On Polymarket, there's no per-trade vig — fees are small and transaction-based.
On a sportsbook, odds are presented as moneylines. On a prediction market, the price IS the implied probability. If a market is at $0.60, the crowd thinks there's a 60% chance. Your edge is the gap between market price and your probability estimate.
Sportsbooks cover game outcomes and player props. Prediction markets cover everything — politics, economics, crypto, science, and entertainment. You can trade on whether the Fed will cut rates, who will win an Oscar, or whether a rocket will launch on schedule.
Is prediction market trading gambling? Legally and structurally, prediction markets are event contracts — not classified as gambling in most jurisdictions. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated as a commodities exchange.
Are prediction markets better than sports betting? Depends what you're optimizing for. Prediction markets have lower structural friction, wider market selection, and quantifiable crowd mispricings.
Sports prediction market picks → Prediction market strategy →